The End of the ACC

Yes, you read that right. The end of the ACC as a dominant conference is about to end. In the last week, much has happened that has caused myself and numerous others to believe that a major conference realignment and shift is about to occur. It all started last weekend when Florida State Board of Trustees Chairman Andy Haggard dropped the bombshell that FSU could be interested in investigating other conferences, namely the Big 12. Then, this week at the annual ACC coaches conference in Florida, FSU was not in attendance. And if that was not enough to make you think this is a reality, the FSU President laid out a pros and cons list of a move to the Big 12. This is huge for the landscape of the ACC and the power conferences of football. If Florida State were to bolt to the Big 12, would they bring anyone with them, and would it spur other teams to follow suit and jump ship to other conferences?

Now, with the rumors of Florida State leaving the ACC circling around, the Big 12 and SEC announced today that it would be creating a new bowl where the winners of each respective conference would play each other in a game on New Years Day. This is significant because this lays the groundwork for a 4 team playoff to be created in the new BCS playoff system. Since the winners of the Pac 10 and Big 10 already play in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl, and now the winners of the Big 12 and SEC playing in this new bowl game, this works out perfectly for the 4 team playoff system. The winners of these two games could play for the National Championship. But here is the problem... Where do the rest of the BCS conferences fit in to this system, namely the ACC and Big East? No where. With collegiate athletics and especially football geared around money, no one is going to want to pay to see the ACC winner play the Big East winner in the Orange Bowl. So both of these conferences in my opinion have the death sentence written on them in terms of football. Now, with FSU rumored to leave to the Big 12, who else in the ACC is ready to jump ship, and where will they go? Let's find out.

We all know that the SEC is looking to expand to 16 teams, even the SEC commissioner says so. So with the SEC currently at 14 teams, who would be the other two that the conference are likely to tap? Currently, the SEC television footprint extends into every state in the south except for North Carolina and Virginia, so it would make fiscal sense to look to expand to those TV markets. UNC would be the most sought after in NC for obvious reasons, but the hierarchy at UNC-CH would not even consider stepping down to the SEC level in academics. Also, I doubt Carolina would leave the ACC without Duke, which the SEC probably would not consider. So that leaves NC State as the next viable option. In my opinion the Wolfpack would be a perfect fit for the SEC. The football program is decent enough in the sub-par ACC, but with a few years of the recruiting boost the SEC brings, it could pose a problem to some teams within the conference. State would also be in the top tier in basketball automatically as well. Add that to the NC TV market which is home to two top 30 markets, and we have a very viable candidate.

Next is Virginia, and Virginia Tech is the only team that makes sense. They hold their own in football and are decent enough in basketball and would fit in nicely in the SEC.

So where do the other teams in the ACC go? Well, I think this is how the new power 4 conferences will shape up to look like after the dust has settled (new teams in bold):

Big 12                                    Big 10                                 SEC                             Pac 10

Baylor                                    Illinois                                Florida                         Arizona

Iowa State                              Indiana                               Georgia                       Arizona St

Kansas                                   Iowa                                   Kentucky                    Cal

Kansas State                          Michigan                            South Carolina            Colorado

Oklahoma                              Michigan State                   Tennessee                   Oregon

Oklahoma State                     Minnesota                          Vanderbilt                   Oregon St

Texas                                     Nebraska                           Alabama                      Stanford

Texas Tech                            Northwestern                    Arkansas                      UCLA

TCU                                      Ohio State                         Auburn                        USC

West Virginia                        Penn State                         LSU                             Utah

FSU                                      Purdue                              Miss State                     Washington

Miami                                   Wisconsin                         Ole Miss                       Wash St

Pittsburgh                            Duke                                Texas A&M                  Boise State

Clemson                               Virginia                           Missouri                         BYU

Georgia Tech                       UNC-CH                         Virginia Tech               Hawaii

L'ville (or Cincy)                 Notre Dame                     NC State                       San Diego St

And the ones left out of the mix to fend for themselves in a new ACC/Big East leftover conference:

Boston College, Wake Forest, Maryland, Syracuse, Connecticut, Rutgers, Cincinnati (or Louisville), South Florida, and UCF.

This would not have as huge of an impact on basketball as it does football, because the number from each conference that goes to the NCAA tournament varies each year, but it does heavily affect the football landscape... but who knows if we will even have football 20 years from now with the lawsuits and insurance liabilities we see with injuries today.

Regardless, I do know this. The ACC as a dominant, power conference is no more. The days of ACC Sunday Night Hoops on Fox Sports Net and the Boston College-Wake Forest football games on the ACC Network at 12:30 are the things about this conference that I will not miss. It has been a fun ride while it has lasted, but the grass is greener on the playing fields of the SEC, and I cannot wait for myself to see "SEC" written on the 25 yard line at Carter-Finley in the near future.